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EXIT STRATEGY FROM THE IRAQ WAR

The Iraq war's exit strategy.

"What is the exit strategy from the war in Iraq?" you may ask.

The answer depends on whom you ask, and when.

"Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W. Bush, April 8, 1999.

"I think it’s also important for the president to lay out a timetable as to how long [U.S. military forces] will be involved and when they will be withdrawn." - George W. Bush, June 4, 1999

Disclaimer: Some of these transcripts may not be exactly accurate. I have discovered that the White House sometimes 'cleans up' transcripts of what Mr. Bush actually said to make it more presentable and presidential, removing the 'umm's, 'uhh's, 'I mean's, and 'you-know's.

Updated August 20, 2008

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have agreed to a preliminary draft of an agreement on the future of U.S. troops in Iraq, a senior U.S. military official said.

Officials from the two countries seem to disagree on what the agreement will say, however.

Earlier, Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Haj Hamood indicated that it included a date of June 30 for U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraqi cities and villages. But the U.S. official said there are no dates in the agreement, only general time frames that would take into account conditions on the ground.

The U.S. source, though, said the June 30 date is a goal, but not set in stone.

"Not a deadline, it's not a timeline," he said. "It's conditions-permitting."

The source said the plan has the approval of U.S. negotiators but President Bush has not signed-off on it. He said it could take a while for the plan to be approved by Iraq's government.

"We are not there yet," State Department spokesman Robert Wood said.

Deputy White House press secretary Gordon Johndroe said talks to finalize the deal are continuing.

In recent weeks, Iraqi government officials said that early versions of the plan would have called for U.S. combat troops to leave Iraq by the end of 2010 and for the remainder of troops to depart by the end of 2011. By June 20, 2009, troops would be restricted to their bases and prohibited from patrolling Iraq's streets.

The Iraqi government also would be able to request that U.S. troops remain longer under the preliminary agreement talks.

The U.S. military presence in Iraq is spelled out by a U.N. mandate that is set to expire by the end of this year. Iraq and the United States want to replace that mandate with an agreement that would provide a framework for how U.S. troops operate within the country.

Influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has asked religious authorities to issue an edict against the signing of a bilateral agreement.

He's asking the marjaya, the Shiite entity that includes Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to stand against any agreement that would establish guidelines and strictures in all areas, including security. Al-Sadr also has said he would support the Iraqi government, with which he has been at odds, if it refused to sign such an agreement.

- U.S. official: Draft of deal for Iraq pullout reached, by Barbara Starr, CNN, August 20, 2008

source: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/08/20/iraq.us.troops/index.html

(AP) Iraq's foreign minister insisted Sunday that any security deal with the United States must contain a "very clear timeline" for the departure of U.S. troops. A suicide bomber struck north of Baghdad, killing at least five people including an American soldier.

Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told reporters that American and Iraqi negotiators were "very close" to reaching a long-term security agreement that will set the rules for U.S. troops in Iraq after the U.N. mandate expires at the end of the year.

Zebari said the Iraqis were insisting that the agreement include a "very clear timeline" for the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces, but he refused to talk about specific dates.

"We have said that this is a condition-driven process," he added, suggesting that the departure schedule could be modified if the security situation changed.

But Zebari made clear that the Iraqis would not accept a deal that lacks a timeline for the end of the U.S. military presence.

"No, no definitely there has to be a very clear timeline," Zebari replied when asked if the Iraqis would accept an agreement that did not mention dates.

Differences over a withdrawal timetable have become one of the most contentious issues remaining in the talks, which began early this year. U.S. and Iraqi negotiators missed a July 31 target date for completing the deal, which must be approved by Iraq's parliament.

President Bush has steadfastly refused to accept any timetable for bringing U.S. troops home. Last month, however, Bush and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki agreed to set a "general time horizon" for a U.S. departure.

Last week, two senior Iraqi officials told The Associated Press that American negotiators had agreement to a formula which would remove U.S. forces from Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009 with all combat troops out of the country by October 2010.

The last American support troops would leave about three years later, the Iraqis said.

But U.S. officials insist there is no agreement on specific dates. Both the American and Iraqi officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are ongoing. Iraq's Shiite-led government believes a withdrawal schedule is essential to win parliamentary approval.

American officials have been less optimistic because of major differences on key issues including who can authorize U.S. military operations and immunity for U.S. troops from prosecution under Iraqi law.

The White House said discussions continued on a bilateral agreement and said any timeframe discussed was due to major improvements in security over the past year.

"We are only now able to discuss conditions-based time horizons because security has improved so much. This would not have been possible 18 months ago," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said Sunday. "We all look forward to the day when Iraqi security forces take the lead on more combat missions, allowing U.S. troops to serve in an overwatch role, and more importantly return home."

Iraq's position in the U.S. talks hardened after a series of Iraqi military successes against Shiite and Sunni extremists in Basra, Baghdad, Mosul and other major cities.

Violence in Iraq has declined sharply over the past year following a U.S. troop buildup, a Sunni revolt against al Qaeda in Iraq and a Shiite militia cease-fire.

But attacks continue, raising concern that the militants are trying to regroup.

- Iraq Wants Timeline For U.S. Pullout, CBS News, August 10, 2008

source: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/10/world/main4336194.shtml

©MMVIII, The Associated Press.

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iraq and the United States are close to reaching a deal under which U.S. combat troops would leave by December 2010 and the rest would leave by the end of 2011, two Iraqi officials said Thursday.

One of the officials, Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Haj Mahmoud, said the two governments probably will reach a final deal within days.

He and Haider Al-Ababdi, a Shiite parliament member from Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, said that under the deal, U.S. troops would be restricted to their bases by June 30 instead of patrolling Iraq's streets.

Mahmoud, the head of Iraq's delegation negotiating a deal on how U.S. troops will operate there, also said the Iraqi government would be able to request that some troops stay longer.

Two senior U.S. officials said negotiators have made progress and are close to a deal. But they also said that some issues are unresolved and that troop withdrawals would be tied to conditions on the ground.

The U.S. military presence is spelled out by a U.N. mandate, which is to expire by the end of this year. Iraq and the United States want to replace that mandate with a status-of-forces agreement governing how U.S. troops will operate in Iraq.

The U.S. officials said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke with al-Maliki on Wednesday to try to resolve the issue of legal immunity for U.S. contractors working in Iraq.

The officials described the phone call as tense.

Under a provision put into place in the early days of the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, security contractors have had immunity from Iraqi law.

The Iraqi government has criticized the blanket immunity because of incidents such as the fatal shootings of 17 people in Baghdad's Nusoor Square on September 16. Iraqi officials say Blackwater Worldwide contractors killed the 17.

- U.S. troops may leave by 2011, Iraqi officials say, CNN, August 7, 2008

by Mohammed Tawfeeq, Arwa Damon, and Elise Labott

source: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/08/07/iraq.main/index.html

This has been a month of encouraging news from Iraq. Violence is down to its lowest level since the spring of 2004, and we're now in our third consecutive month with reduced violence levels holding steady. General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker caution that the progress is still reversible, but they report that there now appears to be a "degree of durability" to the gains we have made.

A significant reason for this sustained progress is the success of the surge. Another is the increasing capability of the Iraqi forces. Iraqi forces now have 192 combat battalions in the fight -- and more than 110 of these battalions are taking the lead in combat operations against terrorists and extremists.

We saw the capability of those forces earlier this year, when the Iraqi government launched successful military operations against Shia extremist groups in Basra, Amarah, and the Sadr City area of Baghdad. Because of these operations, extremists who once terrorized the citizens of these communities have been driven from their strongholds. As a result, our Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, was able to walk the streets of Sadr City last Wednesday, as something that would not have been possible just a few months ago.

This week, the Iraqi government is launching a new offensive in parts of the Diyala province that contain some of al Qaeda's few remaining safe havens in the country. This operation is Iraqi-led; our forces are playing a supporting role. And in the moments -- in the months ahead, the Iraqis will continue taking the lead in more military operations across the country.

As security in Iraq has improved, the Iraqi government has made political progress as well. The Iraqi Council of Representatives has passed several major pieces of legislation this year, and Iraqi leaders are preparing for provincial elections. And Prime Minister Maliki recently returned from a successful visit to Europe, where he held important diplomatic discussions with Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Berlusconi, and His Holy Father Pope Benedict XVI.

The progress in Iraq has allowed us to continue our policy of "return on success." We now have brought home all five of the combat brigades and the three Marine units that were sent to Iraq as part of the surge. The last of these surge brigades returned home this month. And later this year, General Petraeus will present me his recommendations on future troop levels -- including further reductions in our combat forces as conditions permit.

As part of the "return on success" policy, we are also reducing the length of combat tours in Iraq. Beginning tomorrow, troops deploying to Iraq will serve 12-month tours instead of 15-month tours. This will ease the burden on our forces -- and it will make life easier for our wonderful military families.

We're also making progress in our discussion with Prime Minister Maliki's government on a strategic framework agreement. This agreement will serve as the foundation for America's presence in Iraq once the United Nations resolution authorizing the multinational forces there expires on December the 31st.

We remain a nation at war. Al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq -- but the terrorists remain dangerous, and they are determined to strike our country and our allies again. In this time of war, America is grateful to all the men and women who have stepped forward to defend us. They understand that we have no greater responsibility than to stop the terrorists before they launch another attack on our homeland. And every day they make great sacrifices to keep the American people safe here at home. We owe our thanks to all those who wear the uniform -- and their families who support them in their vital work. And the best way to honor them is to support their mission -- and bring them home with victory.

- George W. Bush, President Bush Discusses Iraq, July 31, 2008

source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/07/20080731.html

'AS SOON AS POSSIBLE'

Iraq Leader Maliki Supports Obama's Withdrawal Plans

In an interview with SPIEGEL, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Barack Obama's 16 month timeframe for a withdrawal from Iraq is the right one.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki supports US presidential candidate Barack Obama's plan to withdraw US troops from Iraq within 16 months. When asked in and interview with SPIEGEL when he thinks US troops should leave Iraq, Maliki responded "as soon as possible, as far as we are concerned." He then continued: "US presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says he agrees with US presidential candidate Barack Obama's plans for withdrawing US troops from Iraq.

Maliki was careful to back away from outright support for Obama. "Of course, this is by no means an election endorsement. Who they choose as their president is the Americans' business," he said. But then, apparently referring to Republican candidate John McCain's more open-ended Iraq policy, Maliki said: "Those who operate on the premise of short time periods in Iraq today are being more realistic. Artificially prolonging the tenure of US troops in Iraq would cause problems."

Iraq, Maliki went on to say, "would like to see the establishment of a long-term strategic treaty with the United States, which would govern the basic aspects of our economic and cultural relations." He also emphasized though that the security agreement between the two countries should only "remain in effect in the short term."

The comments by the Iraqi leader come as Obama embarks on a trip to both Afghanistan and Iraq as well as to Europe. Obama was in Afghanistan on Saturday to, as he said prior to his trip, "see what the situation on the ground is … and thank our troops for the heroic work that they've been doing." The exact itinerary of the candidate's trip has not been made public out of security concerns, but it is widely expected that he will arrive in Iraq on Sunday to meet with Maliki.

Maliki has long shown impatience with the open-ended presence of US troops in Iraq. In his conversation with SPIEGEL, he was once again candid about his frustration over the Bush administration's hesitancy about agreeing to a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops. But he did say he was optimistic that such a schedule would be drawn up before Bush leaves the White House next January -- a confidence that appeared justified following Friday's joint announcement in Baghdad and Washington that Bush has now, for the first time, spoken of "a general time horizon" for moving US troops out of Iraq.

"So far the Americans have had trouble agreeing to a concrete timetable for withdrawal, because they feel it would appear tantamount to an admission of defeat," Maliki told SPIEGEL. "But that isn't the case at all. If we come to an agreement, it is not evidence of a defeat, but of a victory, of a severe blow we have inflicted on al-Qaida and the militias."

He also bemoaned the fact that Baghdad has little control over the US troops in Iraq. "It is a fundamental problem for us that it should not be possible, in my country, to prosecute offences or crimes committed by US soldiers against our population," Maliki said.

- cgh/SPIEGEL, July 19, 2008

source: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,566841,00.html

President Bush and Prime Minister Maliki spoke yesterday in their regularly scheduled secure video conference, about a range of matters including the improving security situation and the performance of Iraqi Security Forces across Iraq, from Basra, to Maysan, Baghdad and Sadr City, and Mosul. The two leaders welcomed the recent visit of Prime Minister Erdogan to Baghdad and the successful visit of Prime Minister Maliki to the UAE. They also discussed ongoing initiatives to follow security gains with Iraqi investment in its people, infrastructure, cities, and towns, which will be aided by a $21 billion supplemental budget now before the Iraqi parliament.

In the context of these improving political, economic, and security conditions, the President and the Prime Minister discussed the ongoing negotiations to establish a normalized bilateral relationship between Iraq and the United States. The leaders agreed on a common way forward to conclude these negotiations as soon as possible, and noted in particular the progress made toward completing a broad strategic framework agreement that will build on the Declaration of Principles signed last November, and include areas of cooperation across many fields, including economics, diplomacy, health, culture, education, and security.

In the area of security cooperation, the President and the Prime Minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals -- such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U.S. combat forces from Iraq. The President and Prime Minister agreed that the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal. The two leaders welcomed in this regard the return of the final surge brigade to the United States this month, and the ongoing transition from a primary combat role for U.S. forces to an overwatch role, which focuses on training and advising Iraqi forces, and conducting counter-terror operations in support of those forces.

This transition and the subsequent reduction in U.S. forces from Iraq is a testament to the improving capacity of Iraq's Security Forces and the success of joint operations that were initiated under the new strategy put in place by the President and the Prime Minister in January 2007.

- Statement by the White House Press Secretary on Iraq, July 18, 2008

source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/07/20080718.html

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A deadline should be set for the withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Iraq, and the pullout could be done by 2011, an Iraqi government spokesman said Tuesday.

Ali al-Dabbagh said any timetable would depend on "conditions and the circumstances that the country would be undergoing." But he said a pullout within "three, four or five" years was possible.

"It can be 2011 or 2012," al-Dabbagh said. "We don't have a specific date in mind, but we need to agree on the principle of setting a deadline."

Al-Dabbagh's comments come as the United States and Iraq try to negotiate a framework governing the stationing of U.S. and allied troops beyond the end of 2008, when the current U.N. mandate for coalition forces expires.

Al-Dabbagh said any such deal should include a withdrawal deadline. A day earlier, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki also said he favored a short-term accord that would spell out a withdrawal schedule for U.S. troops. Watch report on how al-Maliki favors a timetable »

But in Washington, State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said U.S. negotiators are "looking at conditions, not calendars."

"Two things we've made very clear from the beginning of the process -- the first is that we're going to deal as sovereign nations working towards an agreement that satisfies both of our needs, and secondly that we're not going to be discussing individual parts of this negotiations during the negotiation process itself," Gallegos said.

Since taking control of U.S. Congress in 2007, Democrats have tried unsuccessfully to impose timetables for troop withdrawals. Some of the attempts were thwarted by filibusters from Republicans in the Senate.

Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the U.S. Senate, told reporters: "I agree with Maliki."

"We should have a timeline. We've been wanting one for a long time," said Reid, D-Nevada.

Reid said it is time for the United States to "take off the training wheels and let Iraq handle their own affairs."

The Pentagon has repeatedly said conditions in Iraq including political and security milestones -- not timetables -- would guide whether the United States will remove troops. Those milestones include reduced levels of sectarian violence, political reconciliation and stronger Iraqi forces.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain said Tuesday the Iraqis have made clear that any withdrawal would be "based on conditions on the ground."

Maliki is "a politician," McCain told MSNBC. "He is a leader of a country that's finally coming together. The fact is that we and the Iraqis will deal in what is in the national security interests of both countries."

The United States is in the process of withdrawing the last of its five "surge" brigades -- those sent to Iraq in 2007 to bolster U.S. forces there. On Monday, Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said violence in Iraq was down to its lowest point in four years and a decision whether to drop the number of troops below the level immediately preceding the surge would come later this year.

The Bush administration has been trying to strike a security deal with Iraq by the end of July, but disputes over the basing of U.S. troops and what authority they would have within Iraq make it unlikely an agreement will be reached by then, al-Dabbagh said.

"We still have our points of disagreement, and we are working on reaching the middle ground that will always guarantee us Iraq's sovereignty," al-Dabbagh said.

CNN's Saad Abedine and Mike Mount contributed to this report.

- Iraq official: U.S. could be out by 2011, CNN, July 8, 2008

source: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/08/us.iraq/index.html

BOULTON: Another thing which is being suggested, coinciding with this visit, is that in Iraq, Britain and America are somehow going different directions; that you've committed to the surge at a time when our new Prime Minister Gordon Brown is drawing down the troops. I mean, do you think we've drawn them down too quickly?

THE PRESIDENT: No, look, I am really appreciative of the relationship I have with Gordon Brown, and particularly on this issue. The worst thing allies can do is not communicate about our plans and our desires. We all want to take troops out of Iraq, and we are. You're right, put more in for the surge. He, by the way, left a lot of troops in, more so than they thought they were going to leave in initially. And so we communicate now. And if there's success, we're going to pull troops out.

- Sky News Political editor Adam Boulton's interview with US President George W. Bush, June 16, 2008

source: http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1319126,00.html

About 500 Australian combat troops pulled out of their base in southern Iraq on Sunday, fulfilling an election promise by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to bring the soldiers home this year.

A British military spokesman in the southern city of Basra said the pullout from Talil base in Nassiriya was under way, but a spokesman for the governor of Dhi Qar province said it had been completed, with U.S. forces replacing the Australians.

"The Australian battle group is pulling out," the British military spokesman said.

Australia, a staunch U.S. ally, was one of the first countries to commit troops to the Iraq war. In addition to the combat troops, it also deployed aircraft and warships to the Gulf to protect Iraq's offshore oil platforms.

Since handing over security of Dhi Qar province to the Iraqis, the main role of the Australian battle group, numbering about 515 soldiers, has been to train and support Iraqi forces.

Rudd, who won elections last November, had promised to bring home frontline troops this year. Polls show 80 percent of Australians oppose the war.

Australia's top military commander, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, said in February that after the troops pulled out, Australia would leave behind two maritime surveillance aircraft and a warship helping patrol the oil platforms, as well as a small force of security and headquarters liaison troops.

The British military spokesman said Australian civilians training the police and advising the Iraqi government would also stay behind.

(Reporting by Haider al-Nasrallah in Nassiriya and Ross Colvin in Baghdad, editing by Adrian Croft)

"Australian troops pull out of Iraq", Reuters, June 1, 2008

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080601/wl_nm/iraq_australia_dc

The number of British troops in Iraq will not be reduced as planned, due to violence in Basra, Defence Secretary Des Browne has told MPs.

Since October the government has cut troop numbers from 5,000 to 4,000. But plans for a further reduction to 2,500 have been halted, he confirmed.

During the weekend, forces became directly involved in fighting between the Iraqi army and Shia militiamen.

The Lib Dems have asked whether the role of UK troops in Iraq has changed.

'Prudent to pause'

Speaking in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Mr Browne said the government was still committed to reducing troop numbers, but recent events had prompted it to reconsider its plans.

"Before the events of the last week, the emerging military advice, based on our assessment of current conditions then, was that further reductions might not be possible at the rate envisaged in the October announcement - although it remains our clear direction of travel and our plan.

"In the light of the last week's events, however, it is prudent that we pause any further reductions while the current situation is unfolding.

"It is absolutely right that military commanders review plans when conditions on the ground change."

Future requirements would be assessed with coalition partners and Iraqis. Mr Browne said he expected to update MPs later in April.

'Show of force'

Iraqi government forces have been trying to wrest control of Basra and other Shia areas from the Mehdi Army - a Shia militia loyal to the radical cleric Moqtada Sadr.

UK troops have provided surveillance, flown fast jet missions over Basra as "shows of force" and used helicopters to help re-supply the Iraqi security forces, Mr Browne said.

He outlined recent involvement by the UK forces, saying tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery had been used to provide "in extremis" support to Iraqi units on the ground, while one of the Iraqi headquarters was resupplied by another UK battlegroup.

Logistic support was also provided in the supply of food, water and ammunition and medical care was given to wounded Iraqi personnel.

At the weekend, a British army spokesman said UK artillery had fired upon a mortar crew in the al-Khalaf area of northern Basra, which had attacked Iraqi soldiers.

It was the first time British troops had directly joined the fighting since the Iraqi army operation began on Tuesday.

Basra was taken by British forces in 2003. They withdrew from the city to the airport last autumn, and handed over security to Iraqi forces in December.

'Mopping up'

Responding to the announcement, shadow defence spokesman Liam Fox questioned the way British forces were being used in southern Iraq.

"It's surely not acceptable for us simply to end up mopping up, if we don't have a say in what operations are being carried out and how they're being carried out.

"It appears from what the Secretary of State has just told us that our commanders had only 48 hours notice (of the Iraqi offensive) and they yet had to deploy one battle group with tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery - is this an acceptable model for the future?"

The Liberal Democrat defence spokesman, Nick Harvey, asked whether the role of the troops had changed.

"The statement today again refers to the concept of 'overwatch', which I think people will previously have understood to have involved training, surveillance, logistic support, and being available on standby.

"But today he's told us about fast jet missions, and the deployment of tanks, armoured vehicles, and artillery. Is this really still 'overwatch' in the sense that will generally have been understood?"

- "Iraq UK troop reduction delayed", BBC, April 1, 2008

source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7323910.stm

Most likely, the war will go on for years, say many commanders and military analysts. In fact, it's possible to consider this just the midpoint. The U.S. combat role in Iraq could have another half decade ahead, or maybe more, depending on the resilience of the insurgency and the U.S. political will to maintain the fight.

Iraq, experts say, is no longer a young war. Nor it is entering an endgame. It may still be in sturdy middle age.

"Four years, optimistically" before the Pentagon can begin a significant troop withdrawal from Iraq, predicted Eric Rosenbach, executive director of the Center for International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School, "and more like seven or eight years" until Iraqi forces can handle the bulk of their own security.

- Five years and counting in Iraq , By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer, March 17, 2008

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080317/ap_on_re_mi_ea/5_years_in_iraq_halfway_1

At a news conference with U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, Cheney said that given the nearly 4,000 U.S. troop deaths and billions of dollars spent on the war, it is very important that "we not quit before the job is done."

Cheney credited reductions in violence to President Bush's decision to deploy an additional 30,000 troops to the war zone. He said one of Bush's considerations in whether to draw back more than the 30,000 before he leaves office will be whether the U.S. can continue on a track toward political reconciliation and stability in Iraq.

"It would be a mistake now to be so eager to draw down the force that we risk putting the outcome in jeopardy," said Cheney, on an unannounced visit to Iraq. "And I don't think we'll do that."

- Bomb kills 39 in Iraqi city of Karbala, By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writer, March 17, 2008

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080317/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

WASHINGTON - President Bush's top diplomat in Iraq said Friday that the U.S. plans to keep combat troops there into 2009, seen as the tipping point for establishing the nation's long-term security, and he offered no deadline for a full withdrawal.

Ambassador Ryan Crocker told The Associated Press that he can't make any promises if, as the Democratic candidates have signaled, the next president pulls forces out faster or in greater numbers.

Crocker said America remains "a center of gravity" in Iraq almost five years after invasion, and that violence and political development both hinge to a considerable degree on whether U.S. forces remain there.

Crocker said he and Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, would make the best of any change in plans ordered from the top.

"Obviously, we're not the ones who make the policy decisions — not in this administration and not in the next one," Crocker said. "If someone wants to reset the conditions, then obviously we'll do the best we can within the context but those aren't assumptions that we start with."

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., have said they would begin withdrawing forces quickly if elected — Obama would bring all combat forces home within 16 months. Clinton has not set a deadline but says she wants to bring most home inside one year.

Both candidates would phase out the withdrawals — and leave a small number of forces behind for specific missions. Either Clinton or Obama is expected to become the Democratic nominee.

Republican front-runners Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney say they would essentially continue Bush's strategy of bringing troops home only as conditions warrant.

The Iraq chiefs are working off a blueprint that calls for "conditions-based withdrawal," Crocker said. That could bring combat troops home by sometime next year if security conditions allow it but leave other forces in Iraq for long-haul missions such as training.

Crocker said the two men stand by an earlier assessment that Iraq would be more or less secure and stable by summer of 2009. American combat troops will be needed at least into 2009 to battle a resilient al-Qaida and still-vibrant insurgency, he said.

Crocker and Petraeus will make their next report to Congress in April. Crocker would not speculate on whether Bush's planned force drawdown would continue after this summer, and he offered no firm predictions on how long any troops would remain.

Bush has indicated he is willing to leave more troops in Iraq at the close of his presidency than envisioned only weeks or months ago. The president said last month that it's fine with him if Petraeus wants to "slow her down" to meet current security needs.

One Army brigade and two Marine battalions have already returned home and will not be replaced. Four other Army brigades are to depart by July, leaving 15 brigades, or roughly 130,000 to 135,000 troops in Iraq. Those troops were part of Bush's 2007 escalation to confront a steep rise in violence, especially in Baghdad.

The escalation worked, within limits, to reduce violence in the capital and allow what Crocker called a returning sense of normalcy. He spoke, however, hours after coordinated suicide bombings that killed dozens at outdoor markets in Baghdad. It was the single deadliest day in Iraq since Washington flooded the capital with 30,000 extra troops last spring.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the bombings prove al-Qaida is "the most brutal and bankrupt of movements" and will strengthen Iraqi resolve to reject terrorism. The bombs were strapped to two mentally disabled women and set off by remote control. The women may have been unknowing agents of death.

Crocker will be the top U.S. negotiator in talks on the American presence with the Iraqis expected to begin this month. He said he expected an eventual "status of forces agreement" to allow for great flexibility in pursuing insurgents while not setting definite troop levels.

"I don't think al-Qaida is going to have gone away after this year, and we and the Iraqis are going to want to make sure we are able to pursue them, but questions of force levels and what not, those will be executive decisions by this president and by the next," he said. "This agreement is in no way going to get into that executive decision prerogative."

- Envoy: US troops to be in Iraq into '09, By ANNE GEARAN and MATTHEW LEE, AP, February 1, 2008

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080202/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_iraq_crocker_16

Also Thursday, a spokesman for the Polish military said Poland will withdraw its troops from Iraq by the end of October.

October 31 will be the last day of the Polish presence in Iraq, Major Dariusz Kacperczyk said, speaking from Warsaw.

There are around 900 Polish troops in the war-torn country, with most in the Qadisiya capital of Diwaniya, some in Baghdad and others in the southern city of Kut. Twenty-two soldiers from Poland have lost their lives during the nearly five year war in Iraq.

- Female suicide bombers kill dozens in Baghdad markets, CNN, February 1, 2008

CNN's Ahmed Taha and Jomana Karadsheh contributed to this report.

Source: http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/01/iraq.main/index.html

CANBERRA - Australia's new Labor Government has formally told the United States it intends to bring its combat troops home from Iraq by the middle of the year.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington that the more than 500 troops and armour in the southern province of Dhi Qar would fly back to Australia when the present rotation ended.

Smith's confirmation of longstanding Labor policy - a direct u-turn on former conservative Prime Minister John Howard's open-ended commitment to Iraq - came as the Government also indicated a re-think of the nation's defence needs.

...

The statements by Smith and Fitzgibbon underline a shift in Australian defence thinking, balancing the US alliance and foreign commitments against a more independent foreign policy and a force structured more closely to the nation's strategic needs.

Iraq is an unpopular war and one which is regarded by most Australians as exposing the nation to greater danger of terror attack.

But Labor has been at pains to ensure that Washington does not see withdrawal as an abandonment of the US or any lessening of the importance Canberra attaches to an "indispensable" alliance. Smith told Rice that Australia would consider other ways of helping Iraq in such areas as governance, infrastructure and other civilian aid projects - but that the troops would come home.

"That's being done in consultation, not just with the US, but also with the United Kingdom and it's being done in a way to absolutely minimise any disruption or difficulty," he said.

- Australian troops to leave Iraq in months, By Greg Ansley, January 30, 2008

source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=359&objectid=10489476&pnum=0

In Iraq, the terrorists and extremists are fighting to deny a proud people their liberty, and fighting to establish safe havens for attacks across the world. One year ago, our enemies were succeeding in their efforts to plunge Iraq into chaos. So we reviewed our strategy and changed course. We launched a surge of American forces into Iraq. We gave our troops a new mission: Work with the Iraqi forces to protect the Iraqi people, pursue the enemy in its strongholds, and deny the terrorists sanctuary anywhere in the country.

The Iraqi people quickly realized that something dramatic had happened. Those who had worried that America was preparing to abandon them instead saw tens of thousands of American forces flowing into their country. They saw our forces moving into neighborhoods, clearing out the terrorists, and staying behind to ensure the enemy did not return. And they saw our troops, along with Provincial Reconstruction Teams that include Foreign Service officers and other skilled public servants, coming in to ensure that improved security was followed by improvements in daily life. Our military and civilians in Iraq are performing with courage and distinction, and they have the gratitude of our whole nation.

The Iraqis launched a surge of their own. In the fall of 2006, Sunni tribal leaders grew tired of al Qaeda's brutality and started a popular uprising called "The Anbar Awakening." Over the past year, similar movements have spread across the country. And today, the grassroots surge includes more than 80,000 Iraqi citizens who are fighting the terrorists. The government in Baghdad has stepped forward, as well -- adding more than 100,000 new Iraqi soldiers and police during the past year.

While the enemy is still dangerous and more work remains, the American and Iraqi surges have achieved results few of us could have imagined just one year ago. When we met last year, many said that containing the violence was impossible. A year later, high profile terrorist attacks are down, civilian deaths are down, sectarian killings are down.

When we met last year, militia extremists -- some armed and trained by Iran -- were wreaking havoc in large areas of Iraq. A year later, coalition and Iraqi forces have killed or captured hundreds of militia fighters. And Iraqis of all backgrounds increasingly realize that defeating these militia fighters is critical to the future of their country.

When we met last year, al Qaeda had sanctuaries in many areas of Iraq, and their leaders had just offered American forces safe passage out of the country. Today, it is al Qaeda that is searching for safe passage. They have been driven from many of the strongholds they once held, and over the past year, we've captured or killed thousands of extremists in Iraq, including hundreds of key al Qaeda leaders and operatives.

Last month, Osama bin Laden released a tape in which he railed against Iraqi tribal leaders who have turned on al Qaeda and admitted that coalition forces are growing stronger in Iraq. Ladies and gentlemen, some may deny the surge is working, but among the terrorists there is no doubt. Al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq, and this enemy will be defeated.

When we met last year, our troop levels in Iraq were on the rise. Today, because of the progress just described, we are implementing a policy of "return on success," and the surge forces we sent to Iraq are beginning to come home.

This progress is a credit to the valor of our troops and the brilliance of their commanders. This evening, I want to speak directly to our men and women on the front lines. Soldiers and sailors, airmen, Marines, and Coast Guardsmen: In the past year, you have done everything we've asked of you, and more. Our nation is grateful for your courage. We are proud of your accomplishments. And tonight in this hallowed chamber, with the American people as our witness, we make you a solemn pledge: In the fight ahead, you will have all you need to protect our nation. And I ask Congress to meet its responsibilities to these brave men and women by fully funding our troops.

Our enemies in Iraq have been hit hard. They are not yet defeated, and we can still expect tough fighting ahead. Our objective in the coming year is to sustain and build on the gains we made in 2007, while transitioning to the next phase of our strategy. American troops are shifting from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi forces, and, eventually, to a protective overwatch mission. As part of this transition, one Army brigade combat team and one Marine Expeditionary Unit have already come home and will not be replaced. In the coming months, four additional brigades and two Marine battalions will follow suit. Taken together, this means more than 20,000 of our troops are coming home.

Any further drawdown of U.S. troops will be based on conditions in Iraq and the recommendations of our commanders. General Petraeus has warned that too fast a drawdown could result in the "disintegration of the Iraqi security forces, al Qaeda-Iraq regaining lost ground, [and] a marked increase in violence." Members of Congress: Having come so far and achieved so much, we must not allow this to happen.

In the coming year, we will work with Iraqi leaders as they build on the progress they're making toward political reconciliation. At the local level, Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds are beginning to come together to reclaim their communities and rebuild their lives. Progress in the provinces must be matched by progress in Baghdad. We're seeing some encouraging signs. The national government is sharing oil revenues with the provinces. The parliament recently passed both a pension law and de-Baathification reform. They're now debating a provincial powers law. The Iraqis still have a distance to travel. But after decades of dictatorship and the pain of sectarian violence, reconciliation is taking place -- and the Iraqi people are taking control of their future.

The mission in Iraq has been difficult and trying for our nation. But it is in the vital interest of the United States that we succeed. A free Iraq will deny al Qaeda a safe haven. A free Iraq will show millions across the Middle East that a future of liberty is possible. A free Iraq will be a friend of America, a partner in fighting terror, and a source of stability in a dangerous part of the world.

By contrast, a failed Iraq would embolden the extremists, strengthen Iran, and give terrorists a base from which to launch new attacks on our friends, our allies, and our homeland. The enemy has made its intentions clear. At a time when the momentum seemed to favor them, al Qaida's top commander in Iraq declared that they will not rest until they have attacked us here in Washington. My fellow Americans: We will not rest either. We will not rest until this enemy has been defeated. We must do the difficult work today, so that years from now people will look back and say that this generation rose to the moment, prevailed in a tough fight, and left behind a more hopeful region and a safer America.

- George W. Bush, State of the Union Speech, January 28, 2008

source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/01/20080128-13.html

FORT MONROE, Va. — The Iraqi defense minister said Monday that his nation would not be able to take full responsibility for its internal security until 2012, nor be able on its own to defend Iraq’s borders from external threat until at least 2018.

Those comments from the minister, Abdul Qadir, were among the most specific public projections of a timeline for the American commitment in Iraq by officials in either Washington or Baghdad. And they suggested a longer commitment than either government had previously indicated.

Pentagon officials expressed no surprise at Mr. Qadir’s projections, which were even less optimistic than those he made last year.

President Bush has never given a date for a military withdrawal from Iraq but has repeatedly said that American forces would stand down as Iraqi forces stand up. Given Mr. Qadir’s assessment of Iraq’s military capabilities on Monday, such a withdrawal appeared to be quite distant, and further away than any American officials have previously stated in public.

Mr. Qadir’s comments are likely to become a factor in political debate over the war. All of the Democratic presidential candidates have promised a swift American withdrawal, while the leading Republican candidates have generally supported President Bush’s plan. Now that rough dates have been attached to his formula, they will certainly come under scrutiny from both sides.

Senior Pentagon and military officials said Mr. Qadir had been consistent throughout his weeklong visit in pressing that timeline, and also in laying out requests for purchasing new weapons through Washington’s program of foreign military sales.

“According to our calculations and our timelines, we think that from the first quarter of 2009 until 2012 we will be able to take full control of the internal affairs of the country,” Mr. Qadir said in an interview on Monday, conducted in Arabic through an interpreter.

“In regard to the borders, regarding protection from any external threats, our calculation appears that we are not going to be able to answer to any external threats until 2018 to 2020,” he added.

He offered no specifics on a timeline for reducing the number of American troops in Iraq.

His statements were slightly less optimistic than what he told an independent United States commission examining the progress of Iraqi security forces last year, according to the September report of the commission, led by a former NATO commander, Gen. James L. Jones of the Marines, who is retired. Then Mr. Qadir said he expected that Iraq would be able to fully defend its borders by 2018.

Mr. Qadir was in the United States to discuss the two nations’ long-term military relationship, starting with how to build the new Iraqi armed forces from the ground up over the next decade and beyond, with American assistance.

The United States and Iraq announced in November that they would negotiate formal agreements on that relationship, including the legal status of American military forces remaining in Iraq and an array of measures for cooperation in the diplomatic and economic arenas.

- Minister Sees Need for U.S. Help in Iraq Until 2018 , By THOM SHANKER, New York Times, January 15, 2008

source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/world/middleeast/15military.html?ref=middleeast

CAMP ARIFJAN, Kuwait (AP) -- President Bush said Saturday it's "fine with me" if generals recommend no more troop-strength reductions in Iraq than those already planned to take the force posture down to about 130,000.

...

The top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, told reporters after Bush spoke that the overall flow of weaponry from Iran into Iraq appears to be down, but attacks with "explosively formed penetrators" tied to Tehran are sharply up in recent days.

Camp Arifjan is the largest U.S. base in Kuwait, home to about 9,000 American troops. Bush met there with Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker to get a firsthand report on the war in Iraq. The two are scheduled to give Congress another update on Iraq in March and make a recommendation about troop levels that Bush said must be made "based upon success."

"My attitude is, if he didn't want to continue the drawdown, that's fine with me, in order to make sure we succeed, see," the president told reporters after the hourlong briefing. "I said to the general, 'If you want to slow her down, fine. It's up to you."'

After a similar report from Petraeus and Crocker in September, Bush announced he would withdraw some troops from Iraq by July -- essentially the 30,000 sent as part of a buildup ordered a year ago -- but still keep the U.S. level there at about 130,000.

"The only thing I can tell you we're on track for is, we're doing what we said was going to happen," the president said.

The war remains deeply unpopular to the U.S. public and to Democratic leaders in Congress, who have been unable to force Bush's hand on deeper, faster troop withdrawals.

U.S. commanders credit a Sunni backlash against al Qaeda in Iraq with helping reduce violence over the past six months.

So far, nine of 18 Iraqi provinces have reverted from U.S. military to Iraqi security control, although the transition has gone more slowly than the Bush administration once hoped.

But Bush said the addition of troops to Iraq over the past year has produced results, saying it has helped turn the country into a place where "hope is returning." He cited citizen cooperation against extremists, grass-roots political changes and lower violence levels.

He also defended the performance of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other leaders.

"I'm not making excuses for a government, but to go from a tyranny to a democracy overnight is virtually impossible. And so when you say, am I pleased with the progress -- what they have gone through and where they are today I think is good progress," Bush said. "Have they done enough? No."

In language that seemed to presage maintaining U.S. troop levels, Bush said: "We cannot take the achievements of 2007 for granted. We must do all we can to ensure that 2008 brings even greater progress for Iraq's young democracy."

Also while on the sprawling base, Bush gave brief thank-you remarks to cheering troops. "It's hard work that you're doing. But it's necessary work," the president told them. "There is no doubt in my mind that we will succeed."

- Bush: Maintaining troop levels 'fine with me', CNN, January 12, 2008

source: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/12/bush.mideast.ap/index.html

WARSAW, Poland, Dec. 22 (UPI) -- Poland plans to withdraw its 900 troops from Iraq by the end of October 2008.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski Friday approved his government's plan to withdraw the troops, a promise made by new Prime Minster Donald Tusk in his inaugural speech last month, the Russian Information Agency Novosti reported Saturday.

Kaczynski, a strong supporter of the United States, had resisted withdrawing troops from Iraq and until the last election had the support of a Polish government led by his twin brother, ex-premier Jarolslaw Kaczynski.

Poland has had troops in Iraq since the beginning of the war in 2003. In all, 25 Polish soldiers have been killed in Iraq, RIA Novosti reported.

- Poland to pull troops from Iraq, UPI, December 22, 2007

source: http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/12/22/poland_to_pull_troops_from_iraq/4905/

In a year marked by progress in Iraq, Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Friday acknowledged two bits of unfinished business in his first 12 months on the job: He has yet to close the Guantanamo Bay prison or find Osama bin Laden.

Gates held out hope that if security gains hold, U.S. troop levels in Iraq can drop through next year. But with a nod to the increased attacks in parts of Afghanistan, he did not rule out a small uptick in U.S. troops there.

While Gates would not put a specific number on Iraq troop levels, he agreed a consistent reduction over the next 12 months would leave 10 brigades there — or roughly 100,000 troops — soon after American voters go to the polls for the 2008 presidential elections.

"My hope has been that the circumstances on the ground will continue to improve in a way that would — when General (David) Petraeus and the chiefs and Central Command do their analysis in March — allow a continuation of the drawdowns at roughly the same pace as the first half of the year," he said.

...

A former CIA director, Gates took over the Pentagon last December after the embattled Donald Rumsfeld stepped down. Since then he has seen both victories and defeats.

Overall, however, Iraq dominated his year — with four trips to the warfront, an overhaul of his commanders, a shift in strategy and a battery of hearings and reviews.

"It was a year that began with a surge of troops in Iraq and has ended with a sharp decline in violence," Gates said. "The war is far from over. And we must protect and build on the gains earned with the blood of our military, our allies and our Iraqi partners."

Gates was cautiously optimistic about further troop reductions. But he said he regretted putting a specific number on that projection in September, when he expressed the hope that forces could drop to 100,000, by the end of 2008 if conditions in Iraq improved.

"We obviously want to sustain the gains that we have already made," he said, adding that the capacity of Iraqi forces to bear more of the security burden and the ability of the Iraqi government to run the country are key to how quickly U.S. forces can leave.

There are 158,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. Plans call for reducing the 20 combat brigades to 15 by next summer. Five more could come out in the second half of the year, he said, if security gains continue.

One combat brigade that left Iraq this month became the first to not be replaced.

Asked about the possibility of political reforms in Iraq, Gates said the country's leaders "are committed to getting it done. We'll see if they get it done."

- Gates offers hope of Iraq withdrawals, By LOLITA C. BALDOR, Associated Press Writer, December 21,

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071221/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/gates

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq will need foreign troops to help defend it for another 10 years, but will not accept U.S. bases indefinitely, government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said.

"Of course we need international support. We have security problems. For 10 years our army will not be able to defend Iraq," Dabbagh told the state-run al-Iraqiya television in an interview broadcast late on Sunday.

"I do not think that there is a threat of an invasion of Iraq, or getting involved in a war. (But) to protect Iraqi sovereignty there must be an army to defend Iraq for the next 10 years," he said.

"But on the other hand, does Iraq accept the permanent existence of U.S. bases, for instance? Absolutely no. There is no Iraqi who would accept the existence of a foreign army in this country," he said. "America is America and Iraq is Iraq."

The United States now has about 155,000 troops in Iraq, formally operating under a U.N. Security Council mandate enacted after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

Iraq has asked the Security Council to extend the mandate for what it says will be a final year to the end of 2008, and conditions for U.S. troops to stay on beyond that date are to be negotiated in the next few months.

Violence has subsided after the United States dispatched 30,000 additional troops to Iraq this year, and Washington now says it will bring about 20,000 home by mid-2008. Troop levels for the second half of the year are to be decided in March.

- Iraq sees need for foreign troops for 10 years, by Peter Graff; Editing by Janet Lawrence, December 17, 2007

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL176928220071217

(CNN) -- British troops Sunday handed over responsibility for security in the southern Iraqi province of Basra, a major milestone in the scaling-back of the foreign military presence nearly five years after the U.S.-led invasion.

"As you step up, we step back," the British commander, Maj. Gen. Graham Binns, told Iraqi troops and political officials, at a transfer ceremony broadcast live on Iraqi state television.

The changing of the guard came on the same day that Iraq resumed train service from Basra to Baghdad after a four-year hiatus.

The handover of Basra became official with the signing of a "memorandum of understanding" by Iraqi and British officials.

Britain has been in command of the south since the Iraq War began, with its troops based in Basra. It has been working to withdraw its troops from the region, which has always been more stable than Baghdad and other outlying regions.

Roughly 5,000 British troops are there now. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government has announced plans to cut forces to about 4,500 by the end of December.

National Security Adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie said the transfer means that Basra police will be the first called to respond to any security incident, and will be backed up by the Iraqi Army as needed.

British troops could be called in to help, but it would be coordinated through the office of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad, he said.

"Our help will continue to be one of assistance, not interference, to support not to direct, to listen not to ignore, to understand not to fear," Binns said.

Improved security allowed Basra to begin its long-stalled train service to the capital, said Gate'e al-Mayahi, chief of Baghdad's central railway station.

The train route runs between the towns of Latifiya, Mahmoudiya and Yusufiya, Iraq's "triangle of death." The trains stopped running four years ago because of insurgent attacks.

Railroad officials, spectators and journalists gathered at the Allawi station Sunday morning for a ribbon-cutting ceremony. Traditional music filled the air as people waved the V-for-victory sign. Several men boarded the train about 9 a.m. as Iraqi police looked on.

The train stops at stations in Hilla, Diwaniya, Samawa and Nasiriya. Al-Mayahi said plans are under way to resume train service to the northern city of Mosul once the tracks are fixed.

"This is proof that the security situation has improved," he said.

The British military, which is now emphasizing the training of local troops and police, plans to reduce its troop deployment to 2,500 by spring.

"There are now 30,000 Iraqi police and armed forces in the region," the Defense Ministry said in a statement on its Web site last week.

Brown, during a visit to Iraq last week, recommended that Basra province, not just the city of Basra, be returned to Iraqi security control during December.

Maj. Gen. Binns said last summer he did not expect they would be ready for a handover by the end of 2007.

"There has been an extraordinary and dramatic reduction in the level of violence in last few months, and the people who can take credit for this are the Iraqi security forces," Binns said.

Al-Rubaie said "huge progress" has been made in "cleaning a lot of bad elements in the police," but it remains a "huge challenge" and "one of the main tasks."

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and British Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Prentice also attended the Basra ceremony, which was held at the British headquarters at the airport outside of Basra.

- British troops return Basra to Iraqis, Jomana Karadsheh, December 16, 2007

source: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/12/16/iraq.main/index.html

CANBERRA (Reuters) - About 550 Australian combat troops in Iraq should be withdrawn by about the middle of next year, Prime Minister-elect Kevin Rudd said on Friday, setting a broad timetable for the soldiers to return home.

Australia has about 1,500 troops in and around Iraq, but Rudd won power at the Australia's national election on November 24 with a promise to bring frontline forces home.

"The combat force in Iraq we would have home by around the middle of next year," Rudd told Australian radio.

Rudd promised a gradual withdrawal of the troops, but had been coy about setting a timetable for their return to Australia. The troops are based mainly in Iraq's more peaceful south, where they help maintain security and train Iraqi forces.

Australia, a close ally of the United States, was one of the first countries to commit troops to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and Australia's former conservative government had been a strong supporter of the U.S. mission in Iraq.

U.S. President George W. Bush phoned Rudd last weekend to congratulate him on his election victory, but Rudd refused to comment on the detail or say whether they talked about Iraq.

Rudd will officially take office in Australia when he is sworn in on Monday. He said his government would start discussions with the United States on the withdrawal soon after.

"We'll have a meeting with the United States ambassador before too long to set up the appropriate processes for discussing that through," he said.

Rudd had also said Australian forces might continue to train Iraqi forces, but in a third country and not in Iraq.

- "Australia wants Iraq troops home by mid 2008," Reporting by James Grubel; Editing by Jeremy Laurence, November 29, 2007

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSSYD31179420071130

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The first big test of security gains linked to the U.S. troop buildup in Iraq is at hand.

The military has started to reverse the 30,000-strong troop increase and commanders are hoping the drop in insurgent and sectarian violence in recent months - achieved at the cost of hundreds of lives - won't prove fleeting.

The current total of 20 combat brigades is shrinking to 19 as the 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, operating in volatile Diyala province, leaves. The U.S. command in Baghdad announced on Saturday that the brigade had begun heading home to Fort Hood, Texas, and that its battle space will be taken by another brigade already operating in Iraq.

Between January and July - on a schedule not yet made public - the force is to shrink further to 15 brigades. The total number of U.S. troops will likely go from 167,000 now to 140,000-145,000 by July, six months before President Bush leaves office and a new commander in chief enters the White House.

- US Military Reversing Iraq Troop Surge, By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer, November 12, 2007

source: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ_SECURITY_GAINS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-11-12-13-53-27

Many of you will deploy to Iraq. You will help carry out a new strategy that, over the past few months, has taken the initiative from the enemy and driven them from key strongholds. Today I want to share with you, and the American people, some of the progress we are making in Iraq -- what we can expect in the months ahead. The fight for Iraq is critical to the security of the American people -- and with the skill and valor of the soldiers standing before me, standing beside me and standing behind me; it is a fight that we will win.

...

Today we face an enemy that is willing to kill the innocent to achieve their political objectives; an enemy that showed us the horrors they intend for us on September the 11th, 2001, when the terrorists murdered nearly 3,000 innocent souls on our own country. You know, it's a day I'll never forget, and it's a day our country should never forget.

Some lessons that we must understand: First, conditions overseas matters to the security of the United States. When people live in hopeless societies, it's the only way that these evil perpetrators of violence can recruit. What matters overseas matters to the homeland. One of the lessons of September the 11th is we can't hope for the best. We must stay on the offense. We must keep the pressure on the enemy. We must use all power of the United States to protect the American people from further home -- further harm, and that's what we're doing here today.

And as we keep pressure on the enemy, we must always remember that the ultimate path to peace will come from the spread of freedom and liberty; that freedom is the great alternative to the ideology of the murderers and the radicals; that -- but working help -- to work to help others become free, and our noble military is laying -- laying the foundation for peace for generations to come.

And it is Iraq that is the central front in this struggle. In that country a democratic ally is fighting for its survival. Our enemies have sought to build safe havens there from which to plot further attacks against our people. And those who will be parading in front of us soon will be called upon to stop them. By taking the fight to the enemy in Iraq, we will defeat the terrorists there so we do not have to face them in the United States.

America's new strategy to win that fight, including a surging U.N. forces -- U.S. forces has been fully operational for four months. I want to assure the loved ones here of something, and I want to assure those who wear the uniform of something: I will make decisions about our troop presence in Iraq and Afghanistan based upon the considered judgment of those who wear the uniform, not based upon the Gallup Poll or political party considerations.

So I accepted the recommendations of General David Petraeus, and I want to report to you on some of the results. Our new strategy emphasized securing the Iraqi population as the foundation for all other progress in that country.

Here's what I can report. First the challenges: Parts of Iraq continue to be violent and difficult. The terrorists are still capable of murdering the innocent -- that will get on our TV screens. The enemy remains determined, but what they have learned about the United States of America is we are more determined. We're more determined to protect ourselves and to help people realize the blessings of freedom. With our help the Iraqi people are going on the offense against the enemy. They're confronting the terrorists, and they're taking their country back.

As part of our strategy, we sent forces into neighborhoods where Iraqis lived to rat out the extremists, to gain the confidence of the people. Together with Iraqi forces we have captured or killed an average of more than 1,500 enemy fighters per month since January of this year.

Since the surge of operations began in June, the number of IED attacks per week has declined by half. U.S. military deaths have fallen to their lowest level in 19 months. Iraqi forces have now assumed responsibility for security in eight of Iraq's 18 provinces. Across this country brave Iraqis are increasingly taking more responsibility for their own security and safety.

We're seeing some of the most dramatic changes in Anbar province. One year ago, many of the experts said Anbar had been lost to the enemy. As a matter of fact, at that time al Qaeda staged a parade in the city streets to flaunt its power and its control. Last week there was another parade in Anbar. This time it was a parade of Iraqi citizens and Iraqi forces who had reclaimed their homes and driven the terrorists out of their cities. And these changes were made possible by the bravery and determination of our Iraqi partners, and the incredible bravery of the men and women of the United States military.

Our enemies see the changes underway, and they increasingly fear they're on the wrong side of events. Osama bin Laden -- who has to hide in caves because the United States is on his tail -- understands, has said publicly that al Qaeda's recent setbacks are mistakes -- the result of mistakes that al Qaeda has made. In other words, he recognizes the inevitable -- that the United States of America and those who long for peace in Iraq, the Iraqi citizens, will not tolerate thugs and killers in their midst.

The Iraqis are becoming more capable, and our military commander tells me that these gains are making possible what I call "return on success." That means we're slowly bringing some of our troops home -- and now we're doing it from a position of strength.

Our new strategy recognizes that once Iraqis feel safe in their homes and neighborhoods they can begin to create jobs and opportunities. And that is starting to happen. There's some challenges: corruption remains a problem; unemployment remains high; and the improvements we are seeing in the Iraqi economy are not uniform across the country. But overall the Iraqi economy is growing at a strong rate.

We're seeing improvements in important economic indicators. Inflation has been cut in half. Electricity production in September reached its highest levels since the war began -- and higher than it was under Saddam Hussein.

Behind these numbers are stories of real people -- some of whom our troops may meet, in some real cities where you may patrol. In Baqubah, the historic market has been reopened in a city that had been in a virtual lockdown a few months ago. In Fallujah, workers have turned an artillery factory into a civilian machine shop employing 600 people. In the Baghdad neighborhood of Ameriya -- an al Qaeda stronghold until a few months ago -- locals have returned and are reopening their shops.

Here's what this progress means to one shopkeeper in the former al Qaeda stronghold of Arab Jabour. He's a local butcher. He says that as recently as June, he was selling only one or two sheep per week. Now, the terrorists cleaned out and residents returning home, he's selling one or two sheep per day. Slowly but surely, the people of Iraq are reclaiming a normal society. You see, when Iraqis don't have to fear the terrorists, they have a chance to build better lives for themselves. You must understand an Iraqi mom wants her child to grow up in peace just like an American mom does.

Our new strategy is based on the idea that improvements in security will help the Iraqis achieve national reconciliation. There's some challenges: reconciliation at the national level hasn't been what we hoped it'd been by now. While the central government has passed a budget, and has reached out to its neighbors, and begun to share oil revenues with the provinces, the Iraqi parliament still lags in passing key legislation. Political factions still are failing to make necessary compromises. And that's disappointing -- and I, of course, made my disappointments clear to Iraqi leadership.

At the same time, reconciliation is taking place at the local level. Many Iraqis are seeing growing cooperation between Shia and Sunnis -- these folks are tired of al Qaeda and they're tired of Iranian-backed extremists, they're weary of fighting, and they are determined to give their families a better life.

In Baghdad, Sunni and Shia leaders in one of the city's most divided neighborhoods recently signed an agreement to halt sectarian violence and end attack on coalition forces.

In Anbar, Sunni sheikhs hosted Shia sheikhs from Karbala province to discuss security and express their unity. And I can assure you -- as can the soldiers who have been in Iraq -- that one year ago such an event was unthinkable.

In Diyala province, tribal groups come together for the first time to foster reconciliation. I'm going to tell you a story of interest to me: Extremists had kidnapped a group of Sunni and Shia leaders from Diyala -- one of them was shot dead. According to a tribal spokesman, the extremists offered to release the Shia sheikhs, but not the Sunnis. And the Shias refused -- unless their Sunni brothers were released as well. The next day, most of the hostages were rescued, and their captors are now in custody. And the point I make is that given time and space, the normal Iraqi will take the necessary steps to put -- fight for a free society. After all, 12 million people voted for freedom -- 12 million people endorsed a democratic constitution. And it's in our interest we help them succeed. It's in our interest we help freedom prevail. It's in our interest we deny safe haven to killers who at one time killed us in America. It's in our interest to show the world that we've got the courage and the determination necessary to spread the foundation for peace, and that is what we're here to honor today.

We're making progress, and many have contributed to the successes. And foremost among them are the men and women of the United States Army. Once again, American soldiers have shown the world why our military is the finest fighting force on earth. And now that legacy falls to the proud graduates today. Earlier generations of soldiers from Fort Jackson made their way to Europe and liberated a continent from tyranny. Today a new generation is following in their noble tradition. And one day people will speak of your achievements in Baqubah and Baghdad the way we now speak of Normandy and the Bulge.

This post was named for a great American President. He served his country in two major conflicts, including the American Revolution at the age of 13. Andrew Jackson was renowned for his courage -- and that courage lives on at the base that bears his name. Troops from Fort Jackson have served with honor and distinction in today's war on terror -- and some have not lived to make the journey home. And today we honor their sacrifices. We pray for their families. We remember what they fought for -- and we pledge to finish the job.

- George W. Bush, President Bush Speaks at Basic Combat Training Graduation Ceremony, November 2, 2007

source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/11/20071102-7.html

LONDON -- Britain will cut its force in Iraq by half in the spring, shrinking the commitment of America's leading coalition partner to 2,500 troops engaged mainly in "training and mentoring" of Iraqi forces, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said today.

The announcement goes much further than the 1,000-troop reduction the prime minister announced in Baghdad last week, and sets the stage for Britain's exit as an active combat participant in the still-troubled region of southern Iraq.

"We will continue to be actively engaged in Iraq's political and economic development. We will continue to assist the Iraqi government and its security forces to help build their capabilities -- military, civilian and economic -- so that they can take full responsibility for the security of their own country," Brown told the House of Commons.

But the strategy he laid out -- signaling a departure from predecessor Tony Blair -- calls for Britain to move out of active combat into a staged "overwatch" role in Iraq, with only "limited" capability for "reintervention" by spring.

- Britain to cut its force in Iraq by half, By Kim Murphy, October 8, 2007

source: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-brits9oct09,0,6771273.story

Good morning. This week, General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker testified before Congress on the progress of America's strategy in Iraq, including the surge in forces. They agreed that our Coalition faces formidable challenges. Yet they also said that security conditions are improving, that our forces are seizing the initiative from the enemy, and that the troop surge is working.

Because of this progress, General Petraeus now believes we can maintain our security gains with fewer U.S. troops. He's recommended a force reduction of 5,700 troops in Iraq by Christmas, and he expects that by July we will be able to reduce our troop levels in Iraq further, from 20 combat brigades to 15. He's also recommended that in December we begin a transition to the next phase of our strategy in Iraq, in which our troops will shift over time from leading operations to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to overwatching those forces.

I have accepted General Petraeus's recommendations. And I have directed that he and Ambassador Crocker deliver another report to Congress in March. At that time, they will provide a fresh assessment of the situation in Iraq and of the troop levels we need to meet our national security objectives. The principle that guides my decisions on troop levels is "return on success." The more successful we are, the more troops can return home. And in all we do, I will ensure that our commanders on the ground have the troops and flexibility they need to defeat the enemy.

Anbar Province is a good example of the progress we are seeing in Iraq. Last year, an intelligence report concluded that Anbar had been lost to al Qaeda. But local sheiks asked for our help to push back the terrorists -- and so we sent an additional 4,000 Marines to Anbar as part of the surge. Together, local sheiks, Iraqi forces, and Coalition troops drove the terrorists from the capital of Ramadi and other population centers. Today, citizens who once feared beheading for talking to our troops now come forward to tell us where the terrorists are hiding. And young Sunnis who once joined the insurgency are now joining the army and police.

The success in Anbar is beginning to be replicated in other parts of Iraq. In Diyala, a province that was once a sanctuary for extremists is now the site of a growing popular uprising against the extremists. In Baghdad, sectarian killings are down, and life is beginning to return to normal in many parts of the city. Groups of Shia extremists and Iranian-backed militants are being broken up, and many of their leaders are being captured or killed. These gains are a tribute to our military, to