What are the chances of dying in Iraq, for a member of the U.S. military stationed there?To answer the question, we make and estimate based on an extrapolation from known data. 5/31/2007 - A javascript based calculator to do this on the fly using any data set. archived page below this line The values used below are from Feb 1, 2007 to June 27, 2007. Days in time period: 146 5/31/2007: This estimate will use data from this month only. (a very bad month in Iraq for US Coalition forces) May, 2007 suffered 126 US military deaths in Iraq. Put into the above calculator yields an answer of about 1 in 101.this is the overall chance of dying during a year tour for a member of the US Military in Iraq, based solely on the casualty rate from May, 2007. Different months and date ranges will yield different figures, as can be seen below. 4/27/2007: A new approach: use recent data instead of total data January, February, March 2007 have averaged 81 US military deaths in Iraq per month. Divide by 30 to get the average daily rate then multiply by 365 to get a yearly figure: 81*365/30 = 985.5 per year. Divide by the current number of troops (150,000) to get the average chance of dying for year: 985.5/150,000 = .00657 which is about 1 in 152.this is the overall chance of dying during a year tour for a member of the US Military in Iraq. To answer the question, we make and estimate based on an extrapolation from known data. As of 6/7/2005, the war in Iraq had been running for 812 days and has produced 1,682 U.S. military deaths from all causes (hostile and non-hostile). The daily casualty average was therefore 1682 / 812 = 2.071428571 There were approximately 145,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. (Washington times, May 10, 2005) So, everything else being equal, for a U.S. troop stationed in Iraq, the chances of dying on any given day were 1682 / (812* 145,000) = 0.0000142857 If serving a year tour in Iraq, the chances of dying during the tour were (1682 * 365) / (812* 145,000) = 0.005214286 which is about 1 in 189.Update 8/24/2005 : The numbers as of 8/24/2005: There are about 138,000 troops in Iraq, 889 days running with 1872 U.S. military deaths. Doing the math on these statistics gives the overall chance of dying during a year tour at approximately 0.00556 which is about 1 in 180.Update 3/22/2006 The numbers as of 3/22/2006: There are about 133,000 troops in Iraq, 1098 days running with 2319 U.S. military deaths. Doing the math on these statistics gives the overall chance of dying during a year tour at approximately 0.005796 which is about 1 in 173.Update 5/5/2006 The numbers as of 5/5/2006: There are about 133,000 troops in Iraq, 1142 days running with 2411 U.S. military deaths. Doing the math on these statistics gives the overall chance of dying during a year tour at approximately 0.005794 which is about 1 in 173.Update 9/20/2006 The numbers as of 9/20/2006: There are about 147,000 troops in Iraq, 1280 days running with 2687 U.S. military deaths. Doing the math on these statistics gives the overall chance of dying during a year tour at approximately 0.005212 which is about 1 in 192.Update 12/29/2006 The numbers as of 12/29/2006: There are about 140,000 troops in Iraq, 1380 days running with 2991 U.S. military deaths. Doing the math on these statistics gives the overall chance of dying during a year tour at approximately 0.00565 which is about 1 in 177.
Depending on location and duties, the ebb and flow of the insurgency, etc, the actual chances may be much less than, or much greater than, the number computed above which is an extrapolation based on current troop levels and overall casualty rates.
What are the chances of being killed in Iraq, for a member of the U.S. military stationed there? Updated 8/14/2015
|
| In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, some of the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
